![]() ![]() The United States is not yet a net exporter of natural gas, but the difference between imports and exports has narrowed for nine consecutive years, according to EIA, falling to its smallest gap ever in 2016. So neither of those would make Trump correct. It has been a net exporter of refined petroleum products since around 2011. The United States has been a net coal exporter for many years. In fact, that is what we saw from 2005 to 2017, as ANE fell at about 2%/year from 2005 to 2017, versus basically flat GNE.It’s possible to substitute any number of energy subcategories into Trump’s remark to see whether they make the statement more accurate. ![]() And given an ongoing-and inevitable-decline in GNE, it's a mathematical certainty that unless the Chindia region cuts their net imports of oil at the same rate as, or at a faster rate than the rate of decline in GNE, the rate of decline in ANE will exceed the rate of decline in GNE and the rate of decline in ANE will accelerate with time. Globally, in my opinion an effective peak (an "Undulating plateau") in actual global crude oil production (45 API gravity and lower) has been obscured by the continued increase in natural gas production and associated liquids-condensate and natural gas liquids.Īnd in regard to export and import data, based on the most recent four week running average EIA weekly data, US refineries were still dependent on net crude oil imports for 30% of the C+C inputs into US refineries, as more and more major net oil exporters quickly approach or have already hit zero net oil exports, e.g., Mexico and Denmark respectively-and as the Chindia region continues to consume an increasing percentage of Global Net Exports of oil (GNE, the combined net exports from the 2005 major net oil exporters).įrom 2005 to 2017, I estimate that the volume of GNE available to importers other than China & India, what I call Available Net Exports (ANE), fell from 40 million bpd to 32 million bpd (total petroleum liquids, BP + EIA data). Or, in round numbers, the US needs to replace the roughly current production of Saudi Arabia about every four years, i.e., we need to put on line the productive equivalent of Saudi Arabia three times over between now and 2030, in order to maintain current US production.Īnd of course, a very high percentage of US C+C production consist of very light crude and condensate.īased on September, 2018 EIA data, about 42% of US Lower 48 C+C production exceeded the maximum API gravity for WTI crude oil, 42 degrees API. In my opinion, a plausible estimate is that at current production levels the US needs to put on line about 2.5 million bpd of new C+C production every year, just to maintain current production. Of course, as production increases the volumetric decline from existing wells increases, and as the percentage of total C+C production coming from tight/shale sources increases, the underling rate of decline from existing wells also increases. ![]() shale patch.Ĭolor me surprised at the magnitude of the increase in US Crude + Condensate (C+C) production, but I continue to think that most analysts are overlooking the decline in existing production, as they assume that the US will produce 10 million bpd plus of C+C for the indefinite future. President Donald Trump continues to call on OPEC to keep oil prices low, because “The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!”.īut a no-deal or an underwhelming agreement on Friday could send oil prices further down, potentially hurting production growth in the U.S. Saudi Arabia, as leader of OPEC, and Russia, its key partner in the production cut deal, are in the midst of deliberating new oil production cuts to rebalance an oversupplied market. Production at 11.7 million bpd is more than what each of Russia and Saudi Arabia pumped in November, although the Saudis are also expected to have reached record highs in their production last month. crude oil production kept at a record 11.7 million bpd throughout November, although these numbers are likely to come off a bit in the monthly estimates. According to weekly data from the EIA, U.S. crude oil exports surged to a record high of 3.203 million bpd last week, as oil production also soars to record highs. ![]()
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